Pondering Exotic Wagers in 2016 Preakness Stakes

Following the announcement that third-place Kentucky Derby finisher Gun Runner would skip the Preakness, Nyquist figures certain to head to post as an odds-on favorite - possibly as low as 3/5. Equally as predictable, Derby runner-up Exaggerator will be the second bettting choice in the wagering, likely settling somewhere between 4/1 and 9/2. While it's difficult to fault horse players who refuse to look outside the top two, those looking to create betting value might see the race in different terms. 

Where to use the obvious two

While plausible that Exaggerator is capable of beating Nyquist, the former has failed in that endeavor four times at three race tracks and four different distances ranging from six furlongs to a mile and a quarter. If nothing else, the unbeaten Nyquist has proven two things: he loves winning and he's faster/better than Exaggerator at this stage in both colt's careers. Still, Exaggerator is in top form and would seem primed for another big run, making him a very obvious candidate to finish second or third. That opinion, while hardly an impressive one, might allow trifecta enthusiasts to create value by either keying Nyquist on top  - or taking the contrarian route and looking for an outside contender to upend the Derby champ in Baltimore. 

Most impressive newcomer 

The intriguing new shoot Stradivari is fresh off consecutive double digit-length wins at Gulfstream Park and Keeneland where the Todd Pletcher trainee was jaw-droppingly impressive. Despite just three career starts, Stradivari has proven to have ample talent and could leave exotics players pondering whether to use the lightly-raced colt on top or underneath, or in combination with the top two choices.